Week Ahead

Bears continued to dominate the headlines, with the benchmark indices recording the biggest weekly loss of the current year as well as reporting the fifth consecutive month of decline.

The Nifty 50 plunged 671 points (2.94%) to 22,125, and the BSE Sensex plummeted 2,113 points (2.81%) to 73,198, while the selling pressure was more in broader markets, with the Nifty Midcap 100 index tanked 5.09% and Smallcap 250 index dropped 5.71%.

Every sector contributed to the fall, though the pressure was much less in Banking & Financial Services compared to others.

In the coming week, on Monday, the market is expected to react to the improved Q3FY25 GDP growth numbers and monthly auto sales data, however, overall, the conditions are likely to remain favourable for bears with focus more on global cues (including US jobs data, manufacturing & services PMI numbers, ECB interest rate decision, China's two sessions, and Fed Chair Powell speech) due to lack of domestic cues.

Globally all eyes will remain on further developments related to tariff policies from the Trump administration as it has been one of the major reasons for correction in the Indian equities in the past months. Also, experts see its impact on global growth and some increase in inflation.

Technically, the market is looking weak now with the formation of long bearish candlestick pattern on the weekly charts following Doji formation in the previous week. The index might rebound initially toward 22,300-22,500 zone after the significant fall and oversold conditions, but the same is unlikely to sustain considering the sell on rally market. The index is near the crucial support of 22,000 (which coincides with 100-week EMA), followed by 21,800 where the experts feel the market may get stabilised as failure of that can open doors for 21,281.

According to the weekly options data, the Nifty 50 is expected to be in the range of 21,800-22,500 in the short term.